Score! The Market ala the NFL

It wasn’t supposed to happen that way. The Jets were spectacularly bad in their preseason. The first team combined for a total of ZERO touchdowns, and the rumor mill had plenty of grist for the demise of the once mighty. Misery possessed a firm grip on the headlines. (Which, for some reason, is a state in which many New Yorkers take a perverse pleasure.) Then the Jets played their official season opener against the Bills, and the unthinkable happened. The Jets won, and not in a scratch-by-with-pluck kind of way. The Jets’ offense owned the Bills. They set a franchise record for most points in a season opener (48) and future victories suddenly seemed inevitable. (Sorry New York.)

Score: Reality 1 – Predictions 0.

A few days ago the August jobs report came out. Misery possessed a firm grip on the headlines. If the jobs report didn’t show a smashing upward trend, the market would (once again) be in trouble. The numbers, when they appeared, showed a small but seemingly meaningless gain. And the market responded by… shooting upwards of course.

Score: Reality 2 – Predictions 0.

The backbenchers quickly jumped into the fray with reasons why bad jobs numbers gave a boost to the market. Their argument goes like this: the fact that the jobs numbers are lousy most probably means that the government will want to do something about it which very likely means another stimulus bill which means a cash infusion to the economy which means increased consumer confidence which means that stocks are going to go up. Voila! The problem is that as an investor you have to deal with the reality. You don’t have the option of explaining after the fact why the market moved the way it did. (Well, technically you do, but it’s not going to get you your money back.) All of this seems to leave the conscientious investor with one of only two options. Go self-directed with understandable assets that don’t fluctuate according to some mob-driven version of gonzo economics. Or… invest in the Jets! They’re going to rip it up this season all the way to the Super Bowl. That’s just the reality.